From the Desk of Mike Napier, FDOH Pasco County, COVID-19 Update

Unfortunately “The Pandemic of the Unvaccinated” is not slowing down.

This week Pasco County has hit an all-time high in cases and positivity rate for the pandemic.

• I want to remind everyone that as your public health official for Pasco County I am bound to follow state mandates and policy directed by the State Surgeon General and Governor. I am getting daily inquires and push back on various aspects of masks and quarantine protocols from the public as you can imagine. I have no authority to make changes in state policy. Those are done at the Surgeon General and Governor level.

COVID-19 CASES

• This morning we received 520 positive cases with a positivity rate of 21%. This is the highest single day positive case number since the beginning of the pandemic, highest 7 and 14 day running averages of cases and positivity rate as well. (See graph)
• We are seeing a significant increase in the number of people being tested. (Up roughly 1,000 more test a day then 2 weeks ago)
• There is a predictive model in the media from the Mayo Clinic that indicates our cases could go as high as 1,600 per day. I would caution anyone to rely on this model as the variables change daily however it does give us a glimpse of worse case scenario.
• As you can see in the graph comparing June/July last year to this year we have not seen a downward trend yet.
• We are beginning to see cases in our long term care facilities.
• While cases have increased globally, in the last month, approximately 6% of all Florida cases have been among vaccinated individuals - otherwise identified as “breakthrough” cases. That also means 96% of the cases were not vaccinated.
• Additionally, in the past 30 days:
• Most cases have been among unvaccinated individuals.
• Most cases have been among individuals 20-49 years of age.
• 50-100 cases a day are in the 0-14 years of age group for the last week.
• Most hospitalizations are among individuals 40-69 years of age.
• According to CDC 84% of the positive cases in Florida are from the Delta variant which is why we are seeing such a rapid increase in cases. The Delta variant has a much higher transmission rate then previous COVID viruses we have seen.
• COVID hospitals admissions are up by nearly 90% in the last 7 days however ICU beds are only up 2.7%. We began weekly calls with hospitals to evaluate and assess their needs and to assist where we can. Here is a website to get more details on cases, admissions and ICU beds for Pasco County. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#county-view
• Additional site for COVID data Home | Florida Department of Health COVID-19 Outbreak (floridahealthcovid19.gov)

VACCINATIONS

• We are still struggling with getting people vaccinated at 57% which is only up by 2% from last week. 43% not vaccinated.
• In the last 7 days 5,210 people got vaccinated… 2,883 tested positive.
• We did see a 7.5% increase from last week in vaccination in the 12-14 age group.
• Vaccine hesitancy continues to be a problem however I am hearing antidotal stories that some of the “hell no” antivaccine people are now reconsidering and are signing up to get the vaccine. The surge in cases with many of the cases being young healthy people being hospitalized has changed some minds.
• Here is a website to locate where vaccine is available. https://floridahealthcovid19.gov Continue to encourage your staff and business partners to get vaccinated.
• As a reminder for everyone eligible for vaccination: if you are fully vaccinated and then have an exposure to a positive COVID-19 case you are not subject to the 10-14 day quarantine unless you begin to show symptoms. This is especially important for school children (back to school August 10^th) who are eligible to be vaccinated and may be exposed and face state quarantine requirements if not vaccinated.

BOTTOM LINE:

• This afternoon the State Surgeon General assured us that we would be receiving additional guidance on schools opening soon. No guess on what that might entail.
• We are seeing doubling of cases every 9-10 days with uncertainty on when we will reach our peak.
• It takes 5-6 weeks from the time someone gets vaccinated to be fully vaccinated however we are continuing to urge individuals to get vaccinated.
• Those of us that are vaccinated we still need to remain vigilant around those who are not vaccinated because breakthrough cases do occur.
• With schools opening in 10 days and our cases increasing we have a high level of concern of the impact it will have on students, parents and our community. In all candor, we don’t have good answers at this point.
• While not popular with some and not required in most circumstances CDC does recommend the use of masks https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/fully-vaccinated-guidance.html